Ports are the oxygen of New Jersey’s industrial real estate market and regional economy.
CARA Port Intelligence Report, Issue No. 21, covers the week ending September 27, 2026. Gate activity looks calm, but the cargo behind it is thinning fast. We call it the Inventory Drain.
Key Takeaways
- Truck visits eased 2.3% week over week to 75,388, and are down 8.2% from a year ago.
- Import containers fell 21.4%, from 30,407 to 23,894, the lowest reading in our twelve-week series.
- Terminal dwell rose to a cycle-high 4.69 days, up from 4.29, because warehouses are still full.
- Single-move turn times improved to 42.51 minutes from 43.34, and double moves to 63.77 minutes.
- The CARA Demand Index slipped to 44 from 48, which signals contraction.
What Happened This Week
At first glance the port looks steady. Trucks are moving, and they are moving faster. Single-move turn times improved 1.9% and trouble tickets fell 14.1%, from 6,054 to 5,198.
Underneath, the picture is different. Imports dropped by 6,513 containers in one week. Yet dwell went up, not down. That tells us the constraint is not the port gate. It is the warehouse door. Northern and Central New Jersey buildings are still holding earlier imports, so containers have nowhere to go.
Gate counts are also a weaker signal than before. A growing share of truck visits is empty returns, chassis moves and exports, not fresh import cargo.
Turn-time gains are real, but they reflect a less crowded gate, not a recovery in demand. Fewer loaded containers means fewer trucks competing for the same appointment windows.
For fleets and tenants, that means faster port visits do not automatically translate into lower costs, since the pressure sits at the receiving dock and in the overall cost of freight, fuel and financing.
Import inventory fell while terminal dwell climbed. Source: PANYNJ data, CARA analysis.
Key Metrics, Week over Week
| Metric | Sep 20 | Sep 27 |
|---|---|---|
| Truck visits | 77,178 | 75,388 |
| Single-move turn time (min) | 43.34 | 42.51 |
| Double-move turn time (min) | 65.59 | 63.77 |
| Import containers | 30,407 | 23,894 |
| Terminal dwell (days) | 4.29 | 4.69 |
| Trouble tickets | 6,054 | 5,198 |
| CARA Demand Index | 48 | 44 |
Twelve-week truck visit trend. The September swings appear to be settling at a lower level.
Why It Matters for NJ Industrial Real Estate
- Demand: A Demand Index below 45 has historically matched stalled lease decisions. Tenants tour space but wait to sign.
- Rents: Concessions keep growing. Net effective rents now run roughly 15% to 20% below asking across Northern and Central NJ.
- Vacancy and supply: Sublease supply in Northern NJ is up an estimated 12% to 15% over 90 days. Construction is very limited, which keeps vacancy from rising even faster.
Four Rerouted Vessels Due October 5 to 11
Yard space is available because inventory is low, but warehouse space is not. The question is whether the new cargo clears smoothly or rebuilds the dwell problem.
Outlook: Bear / Base / Bull
CARA’s scenario weights are 58% Bear, 30% Base and 12% Bull. The Demand Index has moved from about 61 in late August, to 42 on September 13, 48 on September 20, and 44 now. For a real recovery, we want to see it hold above 52 for three straight weeks.
What Owners and Tenants Should Watch
- Import container counts. A sustained move above 30,000 would be a first sign of recovery.
- Terminal dwell. A drop toward 3.75 days would show warehouses clearing.
- How the October 5 to 11 vessels are handled at the terminals.
- Concession levels and sublease listings in your submarket.
- Lease expirations. Review timing and options early.
Get the Full Report
The full PDF has the twelve-week dataset, submarket detail and the complete outlook.
Howard Applebaum, President, Corporate America Realty & Advisors
Office: 201-507-5700 | 732-721-2500
Port activity data sourced from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). Market data from industry-leading commercial real estate data providers, government sources, and other reliable industrial real estate resources, as well as CARA proprietary research. For informational purposes only; not legal, tax or investment advice.
