Analyzing Economic Signals: Historical Treasury Spread Trends and Recession Probability Forecasts

Insights from the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Data

Article by: Howard Applebaum, President, Corporate America Realty & Advisors

These charts provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank focus on the historical trends of the Treasury spread and the associated recession probability forecasts. It succinctly communicates the charts’ dual focus and relevance to understanding economic conditions and potential recessions.

In addition, it is my belief that the Federal Reserve Bank, under the leadership of Jerome Powell, waited too long (probably 4-6 months) before raising interest rates to fight inflation. This was covered in a blog post (

If history repeats itself, the time has come to tighten your seatbelts, . . . be liquid with cash . . . and be ready to take advantage of various asset re-sets/ pricing.

Here are some suggestions based on my 40+ years in Industrial Real Estate Brokerage and Business:

Navigating Economic Downturns, Along With Strategies for Business Resilience and Growth!

In challenging economic times, businesses must blend resilience, foresight, and flexibility to survive and thrive. Their leadership should consider some or all of the following:

  1. Broaden Your Horizons: Expand your offerings to meet diverse customer needs across economic landscapes.
  2. Trim the Fat: Optimize operations, renegotiate supplier terms, and allocate resources wisely to cut costs without sacrificing quality.
  3. Put Customers First: Elevate customer experiences to foster loyalty and attract new business.
  4. Master Cash Flow: Streamline invoicing, collections, and financing to maintain healthy cash reserves.
  5. Financial Discipline: Manage debt prudently, build a financial cushion, and maintain a robust balance sheet.
  6. Embrace Change: Stay nimble and innovative to capitalize on emerging market trends and opportunities.
  7. Smart Marketing: Invest in targeted campaigns highlighting value, affordability, and customer benefits.
  8. Empower Your Team: Support and engage employees to boost productivity, morale, and retention.
  9. Spread Your Bets: Mitigate risks by diversifying revenue streams and maintaining adaptable business strategies.
  10. Never Stop Improving: Regularly assess performance, refine strategies based on market feedback, and stay informed about economic shifts.

By focusing on these areas, business leaders can weather economic storms and position themselves and their companies for sustainable growth, even in economic downturns.

Would you like me or my team of entrepreneurs to elaborate on specific points and provide additional information, or do you need real estate help with recession-proofing your business, a single industrial property, or an entire Real Estate portfolio?


Your thoughts are welcome to share with others.

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